The tariff front-running spike hiding in ADP data
March 2025 saw an unusual surge in machine parts imports through Arizona ports. Here's what the commodity flow data actually shows — and why it matters for future tariff analysis.
Who's moving to Arizona — and who's leaving
Breaking down ACS microdata by age and education to understand the real shape of Sun Belt migration. The headline numbers obscure a more complicated story about who's actually arriving.
Why Arizona gas prices don't move like the rest of the country
Regional refinery constraints, pipeline geography, and the quirks that make Southwest fuel markets behave differently — even when national crude prices swing hard.
The Fed's soft landing looked different from the labor market data
Revisiting the 2024 rate cycle through JOLTS and unemployment flows — what the headline rate obscured and what the job openings ratio actually told us about labor market tightness.
Nogales in the data: Arizona's most important port of entry
A deep dive into what actually crosses the Nogales port each month — commodity mix, seasonality, and how it compares to the other AZ border crossings in the Census trade data.
Core services inflation is the one number that still hasn't cooperated
Housing and goods have cooled. Energy is deflationary. But core services ex-housing keeps running hot — here's the component breakdown and what's driving persistence.
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