What's actually driving inflation — broken down by category — alongside Arizona gas prices vs. the national average.
CPI by component — YoY change
Housing, food, energy, core goods & services
BLS: CPI
Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsStatic snapshot
Arizona vs. U.S. average gas prices
Regular unleaded, $/gallon, weekly
EIA API
Source: U.S. Energy Information AdministrationAdd EIA key for live data
03 — Trade & tariffs
Arizona–Mexico cross-border flows
Monthly import/export values through Arizona ports of entry. The March 2025 machine parts spike reflects tariff front-running ahead of new ADP classifications.
AZ–Mexico import value by month
Total customs value ($M), all commodities, Jan 2024–Mar 2025
Census USATrade
Source: U.S. Census Bureau — USA Trade OnlineAZ ports: Nogales · Douglas · Lukeville · San Luis
Top commodity flows — Mar 2025
By customs value, AZ imports from Mexico
HS code level
Commodity
Value ($M)
MoM chg
ADP machine parts SPIKE
$284.1
+41.2%
Electrical machinery
$198.6
+3.1%
Vehicles & parts
$176.3
−2.4%
Medical instruments
$94.2
+1.8%
Fresh vegetables
$61.5
−8.3%
Copper & articles
$48.9
+5.5%
Source: Census USA Trade OnlinePreliminary Mar 2025 figures
ANALYST NOTE — MAR 2025
+41%
ADP machine parts imports through Arizona ports surged 41% month-over-month in March 2025 — well above any seasonal trend. The timing aligns precisely with pre-announced tariff classification changes, suggesting significant front-running activity by importers.
Read the full analysis → "The tariff front-running spike hiding in ADP data"
04 — Migration
Where people are moving — and why
Net migration flows by state and destination, broken down by age and education level using ACS microdata.
Net migration by education — Arizona inflows
Annual net movers, by highest degree attained
IPUMS ACS
Source: IPUMS ACS microdata via Census Bureau2023 ACS 1-year estimates
Net migration by age group — Arizona
Net movers per 1,000 population, by age cohort
IPUMS ACS
Source: IPUMS ACS microdata via Census Bureau2023 ACS 1-year estimates